European NATO allies have begun private preparations for how the Alliance should handle a potential drawdown of US troops on the continent, despite Washington's limited indications of its plans, EDnews reports, citing Euractiv.
European NATO circles are convinced that US President Donald Trump will reduce the number of forces deployed in Europe, which currently amount to around 80,000, and redirect them to Asia and the Middle East.
For military planners, three key questions are driving discussions: How many US troops will leave, how abrupt the withdrawal will be and whether European forces are capable of replacing the departing American military capabilities.
“It is not a question of whether there is a US drawdown,” one NATO diplomat said, “but how orderly it can be done without jeopardising existing alliance defence plans.”
NATO revamped its defence plans, which determine the Alliance's response to any potential attack, only last year. But those plans rely heavily on American hardware, airpower, and tens of thousands of troops to respond to any potential enemy.
NATO’s eastern flank is especially jittery about a sudden US pullback, which would likely prompt immediate requests for reinforcements from other allies.
Several of those countries have been privately urging NATO to bring talks on a review of its defence plans forward, to start preparation for the possibility that America will play a significantly smaller role.
A US withdrawal is also expected to affect core American military bases in Germany and Italy, which have been the backbone for supporting US forward military operations.
Defence officials in the region say European forces may be willing to fight, but they are still years away from being able to replace the current American forces – particularly with complex and costly capabilities such as US airpower, sophisticated logistics, and satellite systems.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then-President Joe Biden initially reinforced Europe with an additional 20,000 troops, bringing the total to around 80,000.
That's a far cry from Cold War levels, when US troops in Europe numbered around 400,000, but it is still a significant increase after years of slow reductions.
With Trump back in the White House, European allies have been discussing scenarios where 10,000 to 20,000 US troops are withdrawn.