Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is very positive about the possibility of signing a peace agreement by November. How do international experts assess the possibility of the process?

Ednews surveyed on the topic:

Andrew Korybko, Moscow-based American analyst Andrew Korybko:

“Pashinyan must overcome the influence of the ultra-nationalist diaspora lobby over Armenian society, foreign intelligence agencies’ influence therein via “NGOs”, and intensely negative public opinion in order to successfully conclude a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and remain in power so that it isn’t reversed if he’s deposed shortly after.  These challenges aren’t insurmountable, but they’re indeed very formidable, and it’s unclear whether he can successfully overcome them as proven by recent developments such as the protests against his agreement to return four occupied villages to Azerbaijan. 

Some foreign actors like the US and France are interested in dividing and ruling the region by perpetuating these unresolved territorial disputes, and it’s they who are pressuring Pashinyan to hold firm and not compromise with Azerbaijan. They’re extending promises of military and economic support to incentivize him while binding Damocles’ sword of weaponized protests over his head as a stick with which to threaten him if he dares defy their will. He’s found himself in a dilemma entirely of his own making after surrendering significant amounts of his country’s sovereignty to them over the years, which is greatly limiting his policymaking freedom to boldly resolve territorial disputes with Azerbaijan now that he finally seems to be more sincerely interested in it."

Director of South Caucasus Research Center Farhad Mammadov:

"Azerbaijan has already announced the necessary conditions for a peace agreement. This is a change in the constitution, legislation, and official documents. Currently, we see that there are no discussions about constitutional change in Armenia. They can only cancel the decisions made in the parliament in 1992 and remove the name of Karabakh from the current documents. However, I do not know how long this process will be enough for Azerbaijan. However, progress can be made on other topics. There is already progress in the process of defining borders, or at the same time in transport and communication issues. Some progress is possible. That's why I'm not so optimistic about the direct peace agreement."

Armenian politologue Ishkhan Verdiyan:

"I think that if Pashinyan remains in power, the signing of a peace agreement is inevitable. This process has already been started as a machine, so to speak. There is no turning back, the only way back is prison, and Pashinyan knows this very well. Therefore, I am very positive that the peace agreement will be signed by the end of the year!"

Akbar Novruz